Random Thoughts and Cabin Fever

It has certainly been a long winter.  I keep saying that I love all four of Michigan's seasons (and I do!), but wow, almost a record snowfall for February (31" for the month) and a prolonged period of really cold weather had me a bit - "out of whack."

At least we're getting some sunshine and the promise of Spring. I keep looking for my little crocuses (croci?) and daffodils to confirm that Spring is here, but they're under too much snow at this time.

February was also a very busy month for me business-wise, and a busy month for other interests, so I didn't play much poker. For the first time, I didn't earn a small cash award for PokerSchoolOnline (PSO). I only played about a dozen tournaments, but I did have enough points to get a freeroll ticket for March.  I had two or three really quick departures which cost me in the points department, so I guess I should be happy that I qualified for the freerolls this month.

I started March out horribly with my monthly live game.  Been playing once a month with the same group of guys since March 2003.  It's dealer's choice, no hold 'em, and we rotate bringing the food for the group.  It's really more of a male bonding night than a real poker night.  Stakes are ultra-low so nobody gets hurt badly, and it gives a chance to catch up with each other's lives and happenings.

Nobody leaves the hand and it's practically impossible to bluff at these stakes, too.  So you're left with some basic calculations of probablility and outs and the rest is pure luck.  Last night, not even switching decks helped.  I had a few really good hands but the rest were pretty poor. A lot of Omaha hi-lo and seven card hi-lo games were dealt. So even when you win you're usually splitting the pot.

We were also playing short since one of the guys had to go on a 'date' with his wife (it was her birthday - what a wimp) and the other was driving back from Cleveland.  Two others were just missing in action, but we had our reserve player make it to give us a table of five.

It's always a good time and this month I was most definitely a 'donator', but this game is really not about money. Even on a great winning night, nobody gets rich. Actually, we'd have trouble filling up an empty gas tank with our winnings at the current prices. But we always pull half of one ante out of the pot to donate to a local Children's Cancer fund.

I'm hoping that I will turn things around, but I've noticed that when I get really busy with other parts of my life I lose my poker concentration.  That leaves me with the quandry of playing losing poker when 'life is good' or not playing at all.  Hopefully I will work through that issue sometime and figure it all out.  I have some free entry tickets for the Poker Stars SCOOP series, so I will definitely give those a whirl and try to progress in that tourney.

Switching Gears

My golf buddies and I were talking last night and we're pretty sure that there's only a few more weeks of golfing left in this season. Last year, I played my last, very chilly round on the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

Bundled up, wearing winter golf gloves and a wicking 'beanie' cap wasn't quite the same, but at least I was playing golf. This year, I'll start playing at the simulator earlier. It's pretty realistic, except for the putting, which I'll forego. If I'm within 10 ft of the pin I'll declare a one putt. Any further and a two putt. At $20/hr that makes sense to me.

I'm also going to play a lot more poker this year. I've been playing in the Poker Stars Poker School Online league and will be doing more multi-table tournaments (MTTs). Cheap buy-ins, long sessions and hopefully a few final tables will be in my future. That should get me through the winter!

SCOOP Poker Tournament

I'm continuing with the Scoop Poker Tournament on PokerStars.com - wish me luck! I won a qualifier and hope to continue on to bigger and better rounds.

The 2010 SCOOP will have a lot of opportunities for advancement with buy-ins as low as $11. I think I'm one of two players in this from my 47 person online poker league (also at PokerStars.com).

I've been playing fairly solid, but my new nickname may be 'bubble boy' if I don't quit choking when I get close to the money!

Poker - Skill or Luck?

I have had this debate with numerous folks over the years. While this is painting with a wide brush, generally the non-players (poker, that is) think there's a very high degree of luck involved in winning. Obviously, serious players and students of the game think the opposite.

"Skill" is generally defined as an ability acquired through training and experience. (Of course there are other definitions, but let's use this one today.) We'll tackle "luck" at the end.

Anybody that has played a lot of poker knows that there are skill sets that will help you get "into the money". It's relatively easy to figure out the hold 'em starting power hands. Those are the obvious ones, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K suited, etc. If you want the shortcut, try one of the many books written by past champions or the poker experts. But poker is much more than the top 10 or top 20 hands.

There's that pesky qualifier called 'position'. Position is what makes cards like an unsuited K-Q alright to play later in the hand, but not so good early in the hand. Why? Because there are still a lot of ways to get beat if you're acting early with a lot of people in the game, but if a lot of the table folds or simply calls the big blind (no raises) and you're last to act, you've got a couple of fairly powerful cards. This is not something that is necessarily intuitive to new players.

They see a couple of face cards and start throwing their money in the pot - often with negative results. I'm happy to report that some players have to do this repeatedly before they learn. I always hope that I'm at that table when they play this way, too! They are paying for, or buying, their experience - definitely the hard road to follow.

It is worse when they've gotten 'lucky' with those cards previously. Because it won once or twice, they think it's a sure thing and play those cards with abandon - a costly mistake.

Another aspect of poker training is 'reading' your opponent. Does he or she act a certain way when they hold a strong hand, a weak hand? Are there physical clues? I play with a nice guy who's a good poker player, but when he gets a monster hand, his hands literally tremble. Pretty easy to see and figure out. Others have clues that are more subtle, but there for the observant to notice. These clues, by the way, are called 'tells'.

Is somebody prone to bluffing? How about the guy that raises every pot if he holds an ace with any other card-in any position? This are all training to the serious poker player. The best training is often simply to play more and more and to observe more and more and more.

Now for luck. We've all experienced lucky (and unlucky) breaks. You can call it the law of averages, fate, destiny, whatever you wish. Nothing is 100% true all of the time. You can have the best starting poker hand with two cards in hold 'em and still get smoked and lose a lot of chips. If I had a gallon of gas for every time my two aces lost, I could hit the road for very, very long time. Interestingly, the term 'pressing your luck' pretty much means to risk your good fortune, often by acting out of overconfidence. I call that inexperience, which is why playing poker is clearly a game of skill.

Benjamin Franklin said that "diligence is the mother of good luck", but you're probably more familiar with this paraphrased quote attributed to many, including Samuel Goldwyn and Gary Player, amongst others: "The harder I work the luckier I get."

As it is with any venture, it is also true of poker. Don't stop analyzing your game, your opponents, your actions and reactions, or theirs. Poker is not a science, but an understanding of mathematical odds doesn't hurt, either. If you're going to play, keep your eyes and mind open.

WBCOOP First Round

I'm going to give periodic updates for as long as I last tonight in this tournament.

We're starting with 1704 players for no limit hold 'em. 10 minutes in and we're already down to 1589 players! I've had pocket J's and K's so far, but my K's got musted by - pocket J's! Must be the good luck hand of the night.

Winter Blues

Well, this time of year is good for re-organizing your office and doing small project around the house, but not for much else if you don't ski.

I'm trying to hit a bucket of balls every week, but there were two weeks that I didn't do that, even with covered and heated tees. So what's a guy to do? I joined on online poker league. Once a week, $5.50, usually 25-35 guys playing. So far my competition views me as less than illustrious, I'm sure, but I hope to change that soon. I've actually been playing pretty decent in the tournaments, not so much in the small stakes cash games. And a guy's got to stick to his budget.

Once golf season starts, poker will go on the back burner for the rest of the good weather. Speaking of golf, rumor has it that Chemung Hills has been sold. Hopefully they will open for golf in the Spring. It's such a nice course, I'd hate to see its loss.

Sports Interest and a Down Economy Link?

It seems as almost everybody I talk to lately has a major fascination with either the Red Wings or the Tigers. It's always great to go to the game in person, but we're able to watch our teams on television or certainly hear them on the radio. I wonder if people are looking for distraction from the economy, looking for something to cheer about, or if they're really die-hard fans. In any case, it's great to see the interest for our local teams. The Red Wings tied up Round Two play against the Anaheim Ducks last night at 2 games each. Tigers are one game over .500 at 14-13.

It's sad to see local shops go out of business. One goes, two seem to pop-up, though. Take the closing of Taorello's Market in Brighton. Sure, it was upscale, but I thought it filled a definite niche in the area. They're gone now, but an Aldi's opens at Grand River and Golf Club Rd in Howell and a new fruit and flower market is coming to the old Steve Brown used car site on Grand River, just west of National.

The old BP Gas station and Munzell Engineering building on Grand River and St. Paul St. in Brighton is being transformed into a new gas station and retail strip. Tim Horton's will be one of the businesses there. I always thought it was strange that Brighton had a Tim Horton's Regional Office but no retail stores (and I love their coffee). I'm glad they'll be a new face in town.

In Howell, rumor has it that the OfficeMax store in the Grand River Plaza is closing at the end of June. It's a pretty large store with a lot of product and an attractive layout. Hopefully that space will be filled again soon, but even as an optimist I have to admit that it's likely to be vacant for quite some time. Of course, this scenario gets replayed in towns and cities throughout Michigan on an all too regular basis.

Charity poker rooms seem to be popping up all over, too. Howell has had one for quite a while, Brighton now has two or three and there's also one in Whitmore Lake. What's the attraction? For poker players it's a low-cost tournament entry without having to drive to either Detroit or Mt. Pleasant to get to a casino. You don't have to worry about blowing the rent money to play and it gives you a chance to hone your skills with new players. Or it can just be a one-time diversion, something different to do. If you're a good enough player, you can consider poker a competitive sport. If you're a casual player, it's a diversion.

Area golf courses are open, trees and flowers are beginning to blossom and we're into that beautiful Spring weather right now. As I was out yesterday, I took time to make a couple of brief stops and take pictures. The visual of bright redbuds and various colored flowering fruit trees was too much to resist. Luckily I had my camera with me. The picture at left was one of about a dozen that I took just before the light rain started.

Real Estate, Poker and Head Colds

Here I sit at my computer. A long and productive day behind
me. A closing tomorrow. Two offers in negotiation - and
likely closings ahead. I'm working too many hours and have been
giving a lot of thought to local politics. I've been following the
Hamburg Township nonsense for months. Now it seems the
Hartland Township leadership wants to play, too. Today's
papers remind me of Detroit's dysfunctional politics where
the citizens get shorted and it makes me mad.

An impending foreclosure listing, fruitful progress on
another deal. Three others in 'the hopper'. Many typical
communications, good office interaction. My new assistant is
a quick learner and I'm very happy. I'm playing online poker
and listening to Paganini's Violin Concerto No. 1 in D by
Hilary Hahn on Accuradio.com - which I really endorse, by the
way.

I started a tournament with 227 players, now down to 18 and
I'm in 6th place. No, make that 4th place.

Fighting a cold for the last 3 days I am definitely sleep
deprived and getting nourishment from a lunch-time bowl of
soup, and a light dinner. I just sent off my last email and
will now enjoy the rest of my awake time playing poker and
relaxing. A bad read on an opponent at a new table just took
me down to 8th place. The tournament pays out to 10 and
there are now 16 players left. Make that 14 players
remaining.

I'm in 9th place now with 13 players. I can 'coast' into the
winners circle. But I'm only going to play semi-conservative.
Poker is about (excuse the term) playing 'ballsy'.

Beethoven's Symphony 8 is now on. A wonderful opening
movement. It counteracts the cold medication that I've been
taking for three days and literally jolts me awake. I bet
the bottom pair on the flop and the turn gives me two pair.
Betting the pot, I take it in and move to 7th of still 13
players. I just betted aggressively with one of the worst
starting hands (8-3 offsuit) and took it down.

I'm now 8th of 12 players and pretty sure I'll make the cut.
Good cards in early position, pocket 5's. But my only caller
has two Q's and I'm behind in this hand. I've hit a set
(three of a kind) on the flop and prevail. I finish in 4th
place of 10 places paying out.

After 2 hours and 6 minutes (some of it 'sitting out' to
spend time with my wife), I have won an entry into the WPT
(World Poker Tour) Boot Camp qualifier on 2/27 and the winner
of that gets a WPT boot camp of their choice for 2009.
Not bad for a guy drugged on too much cold medication and a
couple of glasses of red wine. By the 27th I should be
'cured' and ready to play for real. I *think* that I'm a
passable poker player, I'd love to make it to a high place in
a big tournament, at least once.

Tomorrow is a busy day and I need to get some sleep
(hopefully). But first I'll finish listening to the third
movement of Brahm's Symphony 3.

Signs Of A Down Economy?

I've been keeping my eyes open as I get around Livingston County. As bad as things are supposed to be, I do see signs of growth and potential.

There seem to be new restaurants popping up all over the place. Pi's asian cuisine in Brighton (on Cross and 2nd), a new asian restaurant coming to Main Street in Brighton, new owners taking over the old Fire Rock on M-59 and Old US-23 (now called Grille 23), India Gate at Grand River and Chilson in Howell, the New Century Buffet on Grand River just east of Latson (in the strip mall by Los Tres Amigos), and even the old Prairie House is living a new life as TJ's River BBQ (in front of Walmart in Howell).

It's been a great winter for outdoor sports, too. I've seen tons of snowmobile tracks on the rural roads, there are always a lot of ice fisherman on the local lakes, and everytime I've driven past Mt. Brighton in the evening, the slopes are full of skiiers and snow boarders. After so many disappointing winters, it's great to see them doing well.

Speaking of Mt. Brighton, they've entered into an agreement to lease space for a new charity poker room. The Shark Club in Howell has been doing this for quite a while, but it looks like the market is still open for more of this type of recreation. I know, some will say that it's not recreation, it's gambling. And yes, there is always a gamble when you play cards.

Not-for-profit groups can apply for a four day State Millionaire's Party License under their Charitable Gaming Regulations. Tournaments are conducted with approximately 80% of the money being paid back to the top tournament finishers. The rest is split between the charity and the group running the poker room. They provide professionally trained dealers, all of the equipment (tables, chips, cards, etc.) and have consistent rules of play.

The group that oversees the poker room at Mt. Brighton is Premier Poker Lounge (http://www.premierpokerlounge.com/PPL/). They just finished their first 4-day set of tournaments at Mt. Brighton and they did have enough players to make for a competitive set of games. Tournaments are popular with players because you pay a flat amount, usually $25 or $30, to enter. The winnings are based on the number of total players and dollars in the 'pool', but if you've watched poker on television and wondered how you might stack up this is a cheap way to find out.

My article word count just clicked over 400 words, and I'm trying to keep blog posts around that limit, so I'll wrap this one up now.