Poker - Skill or Luck?

I have had this debate with numerous folks over the years. While this is painting with a wide brush, generally the non-players (poker, that is) think there's a very high degree of luck involved in winning. Obviously, serious players and students of the game think the opposite.

"Skill" is generally defined as an ability acquired through training and experience. (Of course there are other definitions, but let's use this one today.) We'll tackle "luck" at the end.

Anybody that has played a lot of poker knows that there are skill sets that will help you get "into the money". It's relatively easy to figure out the hold 'em starting power hands. Those are the obvious ones, A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, A-K suited, etc. If you want the shortcut, try one of the many books written by past champions or the poker experts. But poker is much more than the top 10 or top 20 hands.

There's that pesky qualifier called 'position'. Position is what makes cards like an unsuited K-Q alright to play later in the hand, but not so good early in the hand. Why? Because there are still a lot of ways to get beat if you're acting early with a lot of people in the game, but if a lot of the table folds or simply calls the big blind (no raises) and you're last to act, you've got a couple of fairly powerful cards. This is not something that is necessarily intuitive to new players.

They see a couple of face cards and start throwing their money in the pot - often with negative results. I'm happy to report that some players have to do this repeatedly before they learn. I always hope that I'm at that table when they play this way, too! They are paying for, or buying, their experience - definitely the hard road to follow.

It is worse when they've gotten 'lucky' with those cards previously. Because it won once or twice, they think it's a sure thing and play those cards with abandon - a costly mistake.

Another aspect of poker training is 'reading' your opponent. Does he or she act a certain way when they hold a strong hand, a weak hand? Are there physical clues? I play with a nice guy who's a good poker player, but when he gets a monster hand, his hands literally tremble. Pretty easy to see and figure out. Others have clues that are more subtle, but there for the observant to notice. These clues, by the way, are called 'tells'.

Is somebody prone to bluffing? How about the guy that raises every pot if he holds an ace with any other card-in any position? This are all training to the serious poker player. The best training is often simply to play more and more and to observe more and more and more.

Now for luck. We've all experienced lucky (and unlucky) breaks. You can call it the law of averages, fate, destiny, whatever you wish. Nothing is 100% true all of the time. You can have the best starting poker hand with two cards in hold 'em and still get smoked and lose a lot of chips. If I had a gallon of gas for every time my two aces lost, I could hit the road for very, very long time. Interestingly, the term 'pressing your luck' pretty much means to risk your good fortune, often by acting out of overconfidence. I call that inexperience, which is why playing poker is clearly a game of skill.

Benjamin Franklin said that "diligence is the mother of good luck", but you're probably more familiar with this paraphrased quote attributed to many, including Samuel Goldwyn and Gary Player, amongst others: "The harder I work the luckier I get."

As it is with any venture, it is also true of poker. Don't stop analyzing your game, your opponents, your actions and reactions, or theirs. Poker is not a science, but an understanding of mathematical odds doesn't hurt, either. If you're going to play, keep your eyes and mind open.

We Need Some Snow!

Here in lovely SE Michigan, we've had two years of abundant snowfall. Through the end of January this year, we've had only 18.9 inches, compared to 71.7 inches in 2007-2008 and 65.7 inches in 2008-2009.

I know, some are saying, "Good!"

But really, why live in a northern state if you don't like winter and snow? Part of our beautiful State's charm is the changing of the seasons. I love them all - Spring's beauty and fresh smell, Summer's opportunity to immerse myself in a cold-water river in search of trout, Fall's dazzling colors and decided 'nip' in temperatures (just to contrast summer), and of course, Winter. (Fall is my favorite, by the way.)

How many kids have NEVER seen snow? Never had the chance to build a snowman, or have a snowball fight? We really, truly live in a special place.

All of this was brought on my this morning's news that starting tomorrow, we will likely be under a Winter Storm Warning, with 8+ inches of snow expected. That'll be our largest snowfall this winter. Yes, it makes for a day or two of adapting, allowing more travel time, etc., but the way this winter has been going, I suspect that the accumulation will not last very long. And things look so fresh and clean with a nice layer of new snow.

So get ready! Test that snow blower, wax the skis, get the kids' mittens and scarves ready, and let's have some winter fun!

Michigan In Winter

Well, it does take a hearty soul to last through Michigan winters. It really, really helps if you force yourself to do more than run from the house to the car to the office to the car, to the . . . You get the idea.

'Up North' (around Gaylord - or the 45th parallel) is snowmobile heaven. Plenty of public trails, towns that cater to the winter recreation, and of course skiing of both alpine and nordic types.

Let's not forget the northern climate pasttime of ice (or 'hard water') fishing. Drive or drag your equipment out into the lake, cut holes in the ice, and catch some fish. Shanties, as they're called, can be simple home made shacks, the new collapsable types, or even very deluxe units with every convenience short of cable TV (satellite TV in some wouldn't surprise me!).

Here in southern Michigan we can still do a lot of these activities, but you need a good base of snow to effectively snowmobile. Here in Livingston County you can downhill ski at Mt. Brighton, or make a short trip to Alpine Valley or Pine Knob. Huron Clinton Metroparks have a lot of cross country skiing options open, and there are plentiful lakes from which you can fish.

If nothing else, you can make a snowman, have a snowball fight, or visit on of the many 'ice festivals' that are around. It's all winter fun, as my friend Linda says, "It's all good".

And here's something you can only do in a cold location - The Ice House Detroit Project. Labeled as, "Ice House Detroit is an architectural installation and social change project currently taking place in Detroit" is an unusual and eye-catching project. The exact east side Detroit location will be made public on February 7th, but it has garnered national attention already.

And speaking of Detroit, don't forget the 'Motown Winter Blast' that will be centered around Campus Martius Park (Woodward and Michigan Aves) in downtown on February 12-14th. Plenty of fun from bands, food, drinks, winter activities, ice sculptures - all within walking distance of some great hotels and Greektown. I understand the sled dogs and huge snowboard hill won't be there this year due to budget reasons, but it still sounds like a lot of fun. I've been to a couple of them, and it's a great way to spend a day.